A comparison of state space and multiple regression for monthly forecasts: U.S. Fuel consumption     

Kyungcho Bae Recent PhD graduate in Mineral Economics  DeVerle Harris 《Natural Resources Research》1995,4(4):325-339

Monthly consumption forecasts for U.S. oil, natural gas, and coal are made using state space and multiple regression applied to the same data. These forecasts are compared with actual consumption for a test period. The forecasts made using state space are preferred to those made using multiple regression models for both expost and exante cases. The state space forecasts track data cycles better than do the regression forecasts. Average absolute forecast errors are less for the state space models than they are for the multiple regression models.  相似文献   

A synthesis of the geologic evolution of Taiwan   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

C.S. Ho 《Tectonophysics》1986,125(1-3)

The island arc of Taiwan is composed of Cenozoic geosynclinal sediments more than 10,000 m thick, lying on a pre-Tertiary metamorphic basement. Pleistocene to Miocene andesitic islands surround the main island and are related mostly to arc magmatism. The Penghu Island Group in the Taiwan Strait is covered with Pleistocene flood basalt. Neogene shallow marine clastic sediments are exposed mainly in the western foothills with Pleistocene andesitic extrusives at the northern tip and the northeastern offshore islands. A thick sequence of Paleogene to Miocene argillitic to slaty metaclastic rocks underlies the western Central Range and forms the immediate sedimentary cover on the pre-Tertiary metamorphic complex to the east, which represents an older Mesozoic arc-trench system. The Coastal Range in eastern Taiwan is a Neogene andesitic magmatic arc, including also a large variety of volcaniclastic and turbiditic sediments. Cenozoic Taiwan is the site of arc-continent collision where the Luzon arc on the Philippine Sea plate overrides the Chinese continental margin on the Eurasian plate. East and northeast of Taiwan, the polarity of subduction changes whereby the oceanic Philippine Sea plate is subducting beneath the Ryukyu arc system on the Eurasian plate. Continent-arc collision in Taiwan island is anomalous and may occur in a broad belt of deformation rather than along a well-defined plate boundary or subduction zone.  相似文献   

Field survey of the 1994 Mindoro Island,Philippines tsunami   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Fumihiko Imamura  Costas E. Synolakis  Edison Gica  Vasily Titov  Eddie Listanco  Ho Jun Lee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):875-890

This is a report of the field survey of the November 15, 1994 Mindoro Island, Philippines, tsunami generated by an earthquake (M=7.0) with a strike-slip motion. We will report runup heights from 54 locations on Luzon, Mindoro and other smaller islands in the Cape Verde passage between Mindoro and Luzon. Most of the damage was concentrated along the northern coast of Mindoro. Runup height distribution ranged 3–4 m at the most severely damaged areas and 2–4 in neighboring areas. The tsunami-affected area was limited to within 10 km of the epicenter. The largest recorded runup value of 7.3 m was measured on the southwestern coast of Baco Island while a runup of 6.1 m was detected on its northern coastline. The earthquake and tsunami killed 62 people, injured 248 and destroyed 800 houses. As observed in other recent tsunami disasters, most of the casualties were children. Nearly all eyewitnesses interviewed described the first wave as a leading-depression wave. Eyewitnesses reported that the main direction of tsunami propagation was SW in Subaang Bay, SE in Wawa and Calapan, NE on Baco Island and N on Verde Island, suggesting that the tsunami source area was in the southern Pass of Verde Island and that the wave propagated rapidly in all directions. The fault plane extended offshore to the N of Mindoro Island, with its rupture originating S of Verde Island and propagating almost directly south to the inland of Mindoro, thereby accounting for the relatively limited damage area observed on the N of Mindoro.  相似文献   

Ekman motion in shallow open sea in the presence of time-harmonic variation of water depth     

Kyung Tae Jung  Hyoun-Woo Kang  Ho Jin Lee  Mi Kyung Kim 《Continental Shelf Research》2007

The time variation of the wind-induced flow in a homogeneous unbounded sea region has been analytically investigated. The time-dependent Ekman solution in a homogeneous, shallow open sea has been further extended by taking into account the time variation in water depth which might be caused by either tidal motion or change in the mixed layer thickness. The solution approach taken in this study is based on the Galerkin-eigenfunction method originally developed by Heaps [1972. On the numerical solution of three-dimensional hydrodynamical equations for tides and storm surges. Memoires de la Societe Royale des Sciences de Liege Serie 6(2), 143–180]. A series of calculations have been made with emphasis on the influence of the time variation in water depth upon the build-up of Ekman spirals in the presence of oscillatory variations in water depth. It has been found that two oscillations contribute to the wind drift current, the inertial oscillation and the depth-variation-induced oscillation; the inertial oscillation decays with time, but the depth-variation-induced oscillation remains undamped despite the presence of bottom friction. The presence of time-harmonic variation produces peculiar forms of hodograph with a curled or circular pattern according to the angular frequency of the water depth variation.  相似文献   

Planning issues in the territorial integration of the Korean peninsula     

Won Bae Kim 《GeoJournal》2001,53(1):47-56

The historic summit between the leaders of the two Koreas in June 2000 provided a new opportunity for inter-Korean dialogue. Despite many uncertainties regarding the form and substance of inter-Korean economic cooperation, Korean people believe that inter-Korean economic cooperation will expand and eventually lead to economic and territorial integration of the two Koreas. This essay discusses the progress and issues of inter-Korean economic cooperation including infrastructure development. In particular, the essay examines long-term planning issues surrounding the territorial integration of the Korean peninsula and their implications for balanced development. With the German case of economic integration as a point of reference, the essay points out a few strategic problems involved in inter-Korean economic cooperation and suggests an alternative strategy to achieve balanced development.  相似文献   

Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption     

Chih-Hsiang Ho 《Mathematical Geology》1992,24(4):347-364

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85×10^–6/yr, 1.26×10^–5/yr). Also, using-these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10⁴ years is (1.0×10^–3, 6.7×10^–3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.  相似文献   

凝结反馈对云层垂直发展影响的一个线性理论   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾震潮  胡广兴 《气象学报》1962,32(1):64-70

根据小尺度垂直运动的线性分析,作者证明凝结反馈对云层的垂直发展有着很强的制约作用。这种制约作用在温度和湿度较大的情况下更为明显。作者引出了在凝结反馈作用下非定常运动中的频率公式和定常运动下的波速公式。这样,南方雨季中每次雨停时常常见到的云层迅速分层的现象得到了可能的理论解释。  相似文献   

Night drainage winds     

Dr. Z. Petkovšek  Dr. A. Hočevar 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1971,20(4):353-360

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Estimation and improvement in the geolocation accuracy of rational polynomial coefficients with minimum GCPs using KOMPSAT-3A     

Namhoon Kim  Yoonjo Choi  Junsu Bae 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2020,57(6):719-734

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose a method to regenerate Rational Polynomial Coefficients (RPCs) using KOMPSAT-3A imagery and to reduce the geolocation error using minimum ground control points (GCPs). To estimate the new RPCs, the physical sensor model fitted to KOMPSAT-3A imagery was utilized and virtual GCPs over the study area were created. The size of the virtual grid used was 20x20x20. To remove the sensor-related errors in physical sensor model, three different image correction models (image coordinate translation model, shift and drift model, and affine transformation model) were additionally applied. We evaluated our proposed method in two areas within Korea, one in urban (Seoul) and one in rural (Goheung) areas. The results showed that there was a significant improvement after applying the suggested approach in the two areas. The image coordinate translation model is suggested in terms of GCP requirement and expected errors estimated from the error propagation analysis using Gauss–Markov Model (GMM).  相似文献   

Outlying plasmasphere structure detected by whistlers     

D. Ho  D.L. Carpenter 《Planetary and Space Science》1976,24(10):987-994

Whistlers recorded at Eights ($\text{L ? 4}$) and Byrd ($\text{f ? 7}$), Antarctica have been used to study large-scale structure in equatorial plasma density at geocentric distances $\text{?3–6}\text{R}{}_{\mathrm{E}}$. The observations were made during conditions of magnetic quieting following moderate disturbance. The structures were detected by a “scanning” process involving relative motion, at about one tenth of the Earth's angular velocity or greater, between the observed density features and the observing whistler station or stations. Three case studies are described, from 26 March 1965, 11 May 1965 and 29 August 1966. The cases support satellite results by showing outlying high density regions at $\text{?4–6}\text{R}{}_{\mathrm{E}}$ that are separated from the main plasmasphere by trough-like depressions ranging in width from $\text{?0.2}$ to 1 R_E. The structures evidently endured for periods of 12 hr or more. In the cases of deepest quieting their slow east-west motions with respect to the Earth are probably of dynamo origin. The cases observed during deep quieting (11 May 1965 and 29 August 1966) suggest the approximate rotation with the Earth of structure formed during previous moderate disturbance activity in the dusk sector. The third case, from 26 March 1965, may represent a structure formed near local midnight. The reported structures appear to be closely related to the bulge phenomenon. The present work supports other experimental and theoretical evidence that the dusk sector is one of major importance in the generation of outlying density structure. It is inferred that irregularities of the type reported here regularly develop near 4–5 R_E during moderate substorm activity. This research suggests that at least a major class of the density structures that develop near 4 R_E are tail-like in nature, joined to the main body of the plasmasphere. The apparent disagreement with Chappell's results from OGO 5, which are interpreted as showing regions of “detached” plasma beyond 5 R_E, may be related to the pronounced spatial structure of electric fields observed in high-latitude ionospheric regions that are conjugate to the magnetospheric regions in which the OGO-5 observations were made.  相似文献